Sinn Fein’s decision to have Martin McGuinness contest the presidential election in the Republic is a clear signal that the party now feels confident it can make a serious challenge for the Fianna Fail space. Reinforcing this view is the Deputy First Minister’s insistence that if elected he will uphold the South’s constitution; the1937 creation of Fianna Fail founder, Eamon de Valera. What would have appeared impossible two years ago is now a realistic possibility. Thanks to the fall-out from a global economic crisis and Fianna Fail’s responsibility for squandering a decade of prosperity, the Irish electorate is thoroughly disenchanted with the soldier’s of destiny and may be prepared to give a substantial vote to Sinn Fein.

Although still benefitting from a post election honeymoon period, the Fine Gael/Labour Party coalition is implementing austerity measures demanded by the EU-IMF-ECB troika in return for the financial bailout. While not currently prepared to rebel against these measures, the Irish public resents the hardship caused by budget cutbacks and widespread unemployment. Since the office is largely symbolic, a presidential election may well present the population with an opportunity to register its disapproval without having to risk the wrath of their paymasters that more direct action would surely entail.

Sinn Fein’s policies are not unlike those of the early Fianna Fail in that they are using populist, vaguely radical language to criticise the established parties in office. There is, of course, little prospect that if elected, Martin McGuinness would encourage the southern state to defy its bankers or nationalise the country’s assets. He does, however, look a lot more iconoclastic than any of the declared contestants and that may be enough to at least sweep up the votes that would have otherwise have gone to Fianna Fail. Should Martin McGuinness succeed in either winning the presidency or securing a significant vote, his party will be well on its way towards its strategic objective of replacing (or should that read rejuvenating) Fianna Fail.

For the Left the prospect of a second coming of Fianna Fail is an ominous development. Sinn Fein has skeletons in its cupboard but they are well known and largely discounted by the outworking of the Peace Process. With new and different personnel untainted by financial or administrative scandal, Sinn Fein could occupy for years to come the populist, right of centre social democratic space that was monopolised for so long by Fianna Fail.

Comrades, we really do need to talk.

Tommy McKearney